Polar(ized) Opposites: Part 2
The Demographic Split in our Politically Divided Nation
Our country is deeply polarized politically. In my last article, I analyzed voting patterns by county and showed that the partisan divide extends beyond the virtual political landscape to the nation’s physical geography: Americans increasingly reside in counties that are decisively either Republican or Democratic. In this article, I examine the demographic differences that underlie the geographic divide — and no doubt drive our political divisions.
A Red and Blue Demographic Split
Although our recent national elections have tended to be relatively tight, the vast majority of our counties lean red. How have Democrats been able to remain competitive nationally when Republicans are winning such a large share of counties so decisively? The answer is that Democrats tend to live in much larger counties than Republicans. The average blue county in 2016 had almost 350,000 people compared to just 56,000 in red counties (Fig. 1). And the more partisan the county vote, the bigger the divide in county size: deep-red counties are even smaller while the bluest counties are even larger.
This trend, too, is intensifying with redder counties shrinking over time, while bluer counties are growing, meaning the size differential between red and blue counties is expanding (Fig. 2).
The red-blue schism is also evident in their respective income profiles. Per capita incomes in the last election were 28% higher in blue counties than in red, and 45% greater in deep-blue counties than in deep-red counties (Fig. 3). Moreover, the county income exceeds the national income in almost one in three blue counties compared to just one in ten red counties.
And as with population size, the income differential between red and blue counties is rising. Incomes in red counties grew less between 2000 and 2016 than the national average, while incomes in blue counties grew more, magnifying their income gap (Fig. 4).
Finally, we can observe a large and growing ethnic split between red and blue counties. While about 60% of the U.S. population in 2016 was non-Hispanic white, that share rises to over 75% in red counties but falls to less than half in blue counties. And the split widens further when comparing deep red to deep blue counties (Fig. 5).
And this split has been widening over time. While the non-Hispanic white share of the U.S. population dropped by eight percentage points between 2000 and 2016, the decline was negligible in red counties but much more significant in blue counties (Fig. 6).
More Polarized = Less Dialogue
Putting it all together, the U.S. electorate is increasingly polarized by geography and demographics. The margin of victory in the typical county averages an incredible 31 percentage points. Republican voters especially are increasingly residing in very partisan counties. The average vote margin in red counties in the last presidential election was more than 40 pps, almost twice that in the typical blue county. And Republicans account for more than 90% of counties decided by margins of at least 25 pps (Fig. 7).
But the gulf between red and blue goes well beyond just political affiliation: Red counties are less affluent and much smaller than blue counties on average, suggesting that both lifestyle choices and economic opportunities are contributing to the growing divide. And this gulf is widening over time as more red districts lose population and experience slower income growth.
A fundamental question for our nation: How will we ever start to bridge our ideological divides when we increasingly isolate ourselves among like-minded voters?
This is the second part of my two-part article analyzing our political landscape. The full report is available on my website.
